[From 9/10/13]
I couldn't leave this alone. I needed answers.
Everyone
(Packer fans especially) has been piling on Mike McCarthy for accepting
a penalty which took the 49ers from a fourth and 1 situation to a third
and 6. He made the right call by accepting it (or at least I've convinced myself that he did). Since
the 49ers were in the red zone, the probability that they were going to
get at least a field goal was probably around 90% or higher. Obviously
the best-case scenario for the Packers was a turnover, but that
probably happens (randomly) less than 5% of the time in that given
situation. Therefore, the goal should have been to hold the 49ers to a field goal. After all, the goal of the coach should be to put his team in the best position for the best possible outcome, right? In this case, the best (and most logical) outcome was to try and hold San Francisco to a field goal. So, let’s get nerdy and figure this out using the website @ http://football.10flow.com/ - which has accumulated data for basically every situation in the NFL over the past 10 seasons. Here we go:
If McCarthy declined the penalty, the 49ers would have been faced with a fourth and 1. They’d be stupid not to go for it. So, assuming they went for it:
On fourth and 1 the NFL success rate (for the offense) over the past 10 years is 76.5% on run plays and 70.6% on pass plays.
Plus,
anybody who watched the game knows how easily the 49ers were moving the
ball on the Green Bay defense. I think it’s fair to say that in the
49ers specific situation their success rate would have been at least a
few percentage points higher than the average.
So statistically the 49ers would have gotten the first down roughly 8 out of 10 times. From there on in ...
On first and 5 or less, the success rate is 68.8% on run plays and 40.6% on pass plays.
On second and 5 or less, it’s 60.6% on pass plays and 53.9% on pass plays.
On third and 5 or less, it’s 36.3% on run plays and 62.4% on pass plays.
If
the Packers withstand all of that and force a fourth down, the 49ers
probably kick a field goal (which was the goal all along), but this is
definitely the round-about way to that goal, no?
Alternately,
when McCarthy accepted the penalty, Green Bay needed one stop on third
and 6 to force a field goal. Or, had they given up 5 yards and got put
in a fourth and 1 situation, the whole thing is a wash, in which case
it’s hard to say McCarthy was in the wrong. However:
On third and 6, the success rate is 12.4% on run plays and 34.1% on pass plays.
Plus,
this strategy did work had it not been for Clay Matthews’ bonehead
penalty (which resulted in a 49ers penalty also, and a whole other
thing, but that’s sort of beside the point). Point being:
Statistically, McCarthy put the Packers in the best situation to hold
the 49ers to a field goal, which should have been (and was) his goal
from the beginning.
